Emerging enabling technologies

Writing in after a really long time. Multiple things have been happening (more on that later).

In the meantime, I have heard a lot of conversations around technologies (again) after the explosion of democratic access to generative AI (heard of OpenAI and ChatGPT). How many do you realise that the product is just about 7 months old (launched Nov 2022)? And I am hearing a lot of adjectives used to describe technologies. This short post is about putting my thoughts on a few of these adjectives.

Technology (examples)	Entrenched Research, development, production, marketing, diffusion	Emerging Research (late stage) & Development (early stage); production (experimental products)
Stand-alone Specific products and services; one industrial sector; one application domain	Quartz clock technology; Escalator operations	Synthetic biology and gene editing; Sodium-ion batteries
Enabling Range of products; sectors; application domains	Integrated circuits; Super-conductors	Augmented reality; Artificial intelligence

Emerging (vs. entrenched)

The first axis of technology classification is about entrenched technologies (at the other end of emerging technologies). In the technology development lifecycle, I see four stages – research, (product) development, production (product engineering and mass manufacturing), marketing (to the masses), and diffusion. Technologies behind quartz clocks, escalators, and batteries are examples of technologies that are entrenched. Did you notice that I am providing you instances of mass-market adopted products, rather than core technologies? These technologies have matured sufficiently that it is sufficient for us to describe products and we understand the technologies behind them!

On the other end of the axis are emerging technologies – those that are in late stage of research and/ or early stage of product development. Some use cases (products and services) are available, albeit in laboratory scale, let alone mass manufacturing or widespread adoption for business/ personal benefits. Examples of emerging technologies include gene editing, artificial intelligence, and augmented reality. Even though, chronologically some of these might be decades old, the mass adoption criteria determines their emergent nature.

Enabling (vs. stand-alone)

The second axis of technology classification is about stand-alone technologies (at the other end is enabling technologies). Some technologies, though seemingly fungible, are specific to certain products and services, an industrial sector, or an application domain. For instance, while pulleys, motors, and rails are basic tools, combining them to design functional escalators and elevators is specific to vertical (and in some rare cases, horizontal) mobility. Same is true with quartz technologies that are used to make accurate clocks; sodium-ion batteries for energy storage; and other such technologies. The key feature of these technologies is their specificity to a product/ service family, sector or domain.

On the other end of the axis are enabling technologies – those that enable application in a variety of products/ services, industrial sectors, or domains. Examples of enabling technologies include the basic internet, integrated circuits, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence/ machine learning. One can use these technologies for a range of applications and domains. One could see the application of augmented reality in gaming and simulation, product design and prototyping, education and training, as well as service design and innovation.

Summary

In summary, we need to analyse enabling technologies and their potential impacts as very different from entrenched technologies. When we add the concept of emerging technologies, the potential for innovation and impact is immense.

Thoughts welcome. Cheers.

(c) 2023. R Srinivasan